Study says nonresidential fenestration market won't see any significant gains until 2014
A new report from the American Architectural Manufacturers Association and the Window & Door Manufacturers Association predicts sales of nonresidential fenestration products will continue to fall this year before a modest recovery begins in 2013, according to a June 26 Window & Door article. Prepared by Ducker Worldwide, the AAMA/WDMA 2011/2012 U.S. Industry Statistical Review and Forecast predicts larger gains will come in 2014.
The end of energy efficient tax credits in 2011, which produced a decline in residential window sales, did not have the same effect on the nonresidential market, according to the AAMA/WDMA study. Although they are predicted to be relatively flat this year, nonresidential window sales were up about 4 percent in 2011. Those gains came primarily on the remodeling and replacement side of the nonresidential market.
Ducker bases its nonresidential projections on contract awards, which reflect activity related to new nonresidential construction and major additions to existing structures. Actual fenestration demand typically lags contract awards by up to one year or more, it notes. Already at weak levels due to the recession, contract award totals dropped about 1 percent in 2011. The report sees that trend turning about, with contract awards expected to be up slightly this year, with bigger gains through 2015.
As a result, the nonresidential fenestration market will not begin to see big increases until 2014. Having bottomed out in 2010 at about 350 million square feet of vision area, nonresidential window sales are forecast approach 600 million square feet by 2015. Nonresidential entry and interior door sales are expected to follow a similar pattern.