Down But Not Out
February 1, 2021
Recently AIA released their “Consensus” forecast update that takes eight different indexes and averages them out. The prediction for 2021, when all is said and done, is a 5.7 percent decrease in nonresidential spending in the new year.
The main drivers that are pushing the numbers down are lodging (down 20 percent) and amusement (down 12.6 percent) and I think both areas are pretty obvious, given what we are going through right now. I found it interesting that education is only expected to drop 3.9 percent, given the uneasy world that segment is at right now. So that said I think that can be taken as a positive.
It goes without saying that no negative numbers are welcomed, but I do think we can all make this work if the overall drop is only in that 5 percent range. The predictions all point to an uptick geared towards the end of the year, and plus numbers expected in health and public safety have me feeling hopeful on the year ahead. This consensus only takes in what the eight forecasts play out and some of those track records are not the greatest, but we all need a roadmap to follow, so we have one now. Let’s keep hustling and see what happens.
Thank you to everyone who watched/listened to my podcast debut last week. I am stunned. The reaction was way beyond what I expected, and I was thrilled to hear from so many people, including folks I hadn’t talked to in a while. I truly appreciate it! Funniest is that on the video portion, my mess of a background dominated the conversation. Who knew an awful basement setup with a stuffed dog could get people going! Anyway, new and better backgrounds coming on the next edition! Thanks again for the interest and support! If you haven’t seen it yet and want to check it out, click here for video or search for From the Fabricator on your favorite podcast app!
New website for Montana Sash and Door
Congrats to Rick Locke on the new website for his Montana Sash and Door website! I love taking a look at new sites and this one is breathtaking. Tremendous work by Rick and team, and a great way to mix excellent product with awesome scenery!
As you may have seen, the 2020 BEC Conference was postponed. It’s a crusher for me; I love that event, but I understand why this happened and I will stay positive that we’ll get GlassBuild in person in the fall and then an awesome BEC back in Nashville in 2022. In the meantime, the “BEC Presents…” program that the team is putting together will be very valuable and easy to take part in. Looking forward to that!
Glass Magazine January/February
The new Glass Magazine is out and it's time for my monthly review. “What’s Next” is the cover and so appropriate for the year we are headed into. Once again Katy Devlin, Norah Dick and team were awesome here. The Annual Forecast (which is a very deep dive) and World of Glass Coverage is very strong and interesting, and I loved hearing from two of my favorites Joe Erb of Quanex and Tim Finley of TFin Building Solutions. Check this issue out cover to cover; well worth the time!!
Ad of the month
The ad of the month was extremely competitive this month with several newer advertisers taking some shots and being impressive. But like I usually say, only 1 can win my prestigious honor each month...and so in a tight battle the winner this time around goes to Diamon-Fusion International. Yes, I am a huge Syndi Sim/Matt Peters fan, but setting that aside for a moment, their two-page spread was smart and eye catching. The layout stopped me, and the information pulled me in an kept me. Textbook awesome ad. Congrats DFI team! Nice work!
Adapting to pandemic life
Last this week, an article to share from a cousin of mine who is not in the glass business and never has been. My cousin Joanne Perilstein has been blind for more than 20 years and she recently wrote about her experience in the Philadelphia Inquirer. It is an amazing piece for perspective sakes―what she went through then and still goes through now is something very intense and surely makes you think twice when you feel like you are up against it. Super read and I am proud to share.