Forecast Foibles

Some forecasting numbers hit the street this past week. The Architectural Billings Index did go lower in April at 43.2 (from 44.1 in March), and honestly, I thought it would’ve been worse. The worrisome news was that once again, the project inquiries index was at 48 (50 is break even), which has been an index that has been holding up until recently. When inquiries were coming in, that at least showed there’s still a hunger, so seeing a negative here is not great. 

Meanwhile, on the Construction Stress Index, “on hold” private sector projects have increased 40%, and abandoned ones have increased 14% in the past year. Most of the on-hold are waiting on the rates, and whatever the final fallout of the trade war will be. Hopefully, we don’t see those going into the abandoned bucket  If you missed Katy Devlin’s State of the Industry by the Numbers, she hit on tariffs and their effects, including supply chain, US GDP, Interest rates, Construction Spending, Forecasts, and much more. Very interesting… A few questions, including one on isolating tariff costs, are especially important. And if you missed it, you can catch a replay of it.

As it’s always noted here, it's going to be bumpy. Make sure you are diversified and in total control of your costing… and of course, work with partners and suppliers you can trust. Katy noted this, too, in her presentation.

Elsewhere… 

To keep yourself sane and positive… check out my latest podcast because the two guests really give you hope thanks to their energy and talent. James Hatch of Kovach and Lauren Dunford of Guidewheel surely caught on nicely in the first week of the podcast release, and a lot of great feedback on both. Good listening for the holiday weekend! Check it out on YouTube here, or listen here, as well as on Spotify and Apple.

And note, the entire archive of episodes, 66 so far with 179 guests, can be found by searching “From the Fabricator” on your favorite podcast outlet; Apple, Spotify, and YouTube among others.

Glass Magazine Awards voting

The public voting for the most prestigious award program in the industry ends soon! The Glass Magazine Awards for 2025 feature some tremendous companies and products. You can be a part of the judging too by going here and going into the available categories, checking out the nominees, and casting your vote. The deadline is June 2nd. Check ‘em out and recognize those working hard to bring advancements to our space!

Personnel news

Congrats to Alex Burleson on his new gig as Wholesale Sales Manager at UGT Fabrication in Deland, Florida, which is home of Stetson U and a place where I saw a basketball game while somehow sitting in the best seats right next to the President of the school. I was there, though, for Stetson’s opponent, Ohio U., and I don’t think she or anyone else was happy about that! Anyway, it was great to see Alex land at a company with strong potential, and his connections will surely help them achieve it. Happy for you, Alex!

Mental Health Awareness Month

May is Mental Health Awareness Month… and with this month almost over, please don’t relax on caring about Mental Health. This is truly an all-year, all-the-time effort. I look at the efforts from people like Cal Beyer and David Argus, and while we all can’t get to their passion level, we owe it to them and our fellow people out there to do the best we can. I shared some pieces on Mental Health Awareness earlier this month, but more can be found at this spot from the NGA. Let’s keep the effort up no matter what the calendar says!

Uplifting video

Last this week…I saw this post from Kat Downen, and while the text got me going, it was the video at the bottom that absolutely mesmerized me. A mama duck and firefighters are saving the rest of her family that fell into a sewer drain. This video is a few years old, but it still has the same effect. Really cool watching the mama duck and the whole process unfold. Yes, I am a huge softie for animal stuff like this… but when you have so much frustrating business news…an easy and uplifting piece really comes in clutch!